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Sunday, 31 December 2017

Financial Analysis

Why Do We Analyze Financial Statements?
*      A firm’s financial statements can be analyzed internally (by employees, managers) and externally (by bankers, investors, customers, and other interested parties).
*      An internal financial analysis might be done:
        To evaluate the performance of employees and determine their pay raises and bonuses.
        To compare the financial performance of the firm’s different divisions.
        To prepare financial projections, such as those associated with the launch of a new product.
        To evaluate the firm’s financial performance in light of its competitors and determine how the firm might improve its operations.
*      A variety of firms and individuals that have an economic interest might also undertake an external financial analysis:
        Banks and other lenders deciding whether to loan money to the firm.
        Suppliers who are considering whether to grant credit to the firm.
        Credit-rating agencies trying to determine the firm’s creditworthiness.
*      Professional analysts who work for investment companies considering investing in the firm or advising others about investing.
*      Individual investors deciding whether to invest in the firm.

Common Size Statements – Standardizing Financial Information
*      A common size financial statement is a standardized version of a financial statement in which all entries are presented in percentages.
*      A common size financial statement helps to compare entries in a firm’s financial statements, even if the firms are not of equal size.
*      How to prepare a common size financial statement?
        For a common size income statement, divide each entry in the income statement by the company’s sales.
        For a common size balance sheet, divide each entry in the balance sheet by the firm’s total assets.

Using Financial Ratios
*      Financial ratios provide another method for standardizing the financial information on the income statement and balance sheet.
*      A ratio by itself may have no meaning.  Hence, a given ratio is compared to: (a) ratios from previous years; or (b) ratios of other firms in the same industry.
*      If the differences in the ratios are significant, more in-depth analysis must be done.

Liquidity Ratios
*      Liquidity ratios address a basic question: How liquid is the firm?
*      A firm is financially liquid if it is able to pay its bills on time. We can analyze a firm’s liquidity from two perspectives:
        Overall or general firm liquidity
        Liquidity of specific current asset accounts
*      Overall liquidity is analyzed by comparing the firm’s current assets to the firm’s current liabilities.
*      Liquidity of specific assets is analyzed by examining the timeliness in which the firm’s primary liquid assets – accounts receivable and inventories – are converted into cash.
*      The overall liquidity of a firm is analyzed by computing the current ratio and acid-test ratio.

Liquidity Ratios: Current Ratio
*      Current Ratio: Current Ratio compares a firm’s current (liquid) assets to its current (short-term) liabilities.

*      Example:
                Current ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 = $477 ÷ 292.5
                = 1.63 times
                Current ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2010 = 2.23 times
*      The firm had $1.63 in current assets for every $1 it owed in current liability. The current ratio improved in 2010 to 2.23 times as the current assets increased significantly in 2010.

Liquidity Ratios: Quick Ratio
*      The overall liquidity of a firm is also analyzed by computing the Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio. This ratio excludes the inventory from current assets as inventory may not always be very liquid.


*      Example:
                Quick ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009
                = ($477-$229.50) ÷ ($292.50) = 0.85 times
                Quick ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2010 = 0.92 times
*      The firm is clearly less liquid using quick ratio as the firm has only $0.85 in current assets (less inventory) to cover $1 in current liabilities. The quick ratio improved in 2010 to 0.92 times largely due to an increase in current assets.

Liquidity Ratios: Accounts Receivable
*      Average Collection Period measures the number of days it takes the firm to collect its receivables.

*      Example:
                What will be the average collection period for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume that the annual credit sales were $2,500 million in 2009?
                Daily Credit Sales = $2,500 million ÷ 365 days = $6.85 million
                Average Collection Period = Accounts Receivable ÷ Daily Credit Sales
                                                                         = $139.5m ÷ $6.85m = 20.37 days
                The firm collects its accounts receivable in 20.37 days.
Liquidity Ratios: Accounts Receivable Turnover Ratio
*      Accounts Receivable Turnover Ratio measures how many times accounts receivable are “rolled over” during a year.

*      Example:
                What will be the accounts receivable turnover ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume that the annual credit sales were $2,500 million in 2009?
                Accounts Receivable Turnover = $2,500 million ÷ $139.50
                = 17.92 times
                The firm’s accounts receivable were turning over at 17.92 times per year.

Liquidity Ratios: Inventory Turnover Ratio and Days’ Sales in Inventory
*      Inventory turnover ratio measures how many times the company turns over its inventory during the year. Shorter inventory cycles lead to greater liquidity since the items in inventory are converted to cash more quickly.

*      Example:
                What will be the inventory turnover ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume that the cost of goods sold were $1,980 million in 2009?
                Inventory Turnover Ratio = $1,980 ÷ $229.50 = 8.63 times
                The firm turned over its inventory 8.63 times per year.
*      We can express the inventory turnover ratio in terms of the number of days the inventory sits unsold on the firm’s shelves.
                Days’ Sales in Inventory = 365 ÷ inventory turnover ratio
                = 365 ÷ 8.63 = 42.29 days
                The firm, on average, holds it inventory for about 42 days.          

Can a Firm Have Too Much Liquidity?
*      A high investment in liquid assets will enable the firm to repay its current liabilities in a timely manner.
*      However, an excessive investments in liquid assets can prove to be costly as liquid assets (such as cash) generate minimal return.

Capital Structure Ratios
*      Capital structure refers to the way a firm finances its assets.
*      Capital structure ratios address the important question: How has the firm financed the purchase of its assets?
*      We will use two ratios, debt ratio and times interest earned ratio, to answer the question.
*      Debt ratio measures the proportion of the firm’s assets that are financed by borrowing or debt financing.
*      Example:
                What will be the debt ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009?
                Debt Ratio = $1,012.50 million ÷ $1,764 million = 57.40%
                The firm financed 57.39% of its assets with debt.
*      Times Interest Earned Ratio measures the ability of the firm to service its debt or repay the interest on debt.
                We use EBIT or operating income as interest expense is paid before a firm pays its taxes.


*      Example:
                What will be the times interest earned ratio for 2009 if we assume interest expense of $65 million and EBIT of $350 million?
                Times Interest Earned = $350 million ÷ $65 million = 5.38 times
                Thus the firm can pay its total interest expense 5.38 times or interest consumed 1/5.38th or 18.58% of its EBIT. Thus, even if the EBIT shrinks by 81.42% (100-18.58), the firm will be able to pay its interest expense.

Asset Management Efficiency Ratios
*      Asset management efficiency ratios measure a firm’s effectiveness in utilizing its assets to generate sales.
*      They are commonly referred to as turnover ratios as they reflect the number of times a particular asset account balance turns over during a year.
*      Total Asset Turnover Ratio represents the amount of sales generated per dollar invested in firm’s assets.
*      Example:
                What will be the total asset turnover ratio for 2009 if we assume the total sales in 2009 were $2,500 million?
                Total Asset Turnover = $2,500 million ÷ $1,764 million = 1.42 times
                Thus the firm generated $1.42 in sales per dollar of assets in 2009.

*      Fixed asset turnover ratio measures firm’s efficiency in utilizing its fixed assets (such as property, plant and equipment).
*      Example:
*                      Fixed asset turnover ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. 2009 if we assume sales of $2,500 million for 2009?

Fixed Asset Turnover = $2,500 million ÷ $1,287 million
                                                                    = 1.94 times
                The firm generated $1.94 in sales per dollar invested in plant and equipment.
For Boswell, 2010
*      Total Asset Turnover = Sales ÷ Total Assets
                                                                = $2,700m ÷ $1,971m = 1.37
*      Fixed Asset Turnover = Sales ÷ Net Plant and Equipment
                                                                = $2,700m ÷$1,327.5m = 2.03
*      Receivables Turnover
                                                = Credit Sales ÷ Accounts Receivable
                                                = $2,700m ÷ $162m = 16.67 times
*      Inventory Turnover
                                                = Cost of Goods Sold ÷ Inventories
                                                = $2,025m ÷$378m = 3.36 times
The following grid summarizes the efficiency of Boswell’s management in utilizing its assets to generate sales in 2010.

Profitability Ratios
*      Profitability ratios address a very fundamental question: Has the firm earned adequate returns on its investments?
*      We answer this question by analyzing the firm’s profit margin, which predict the ability of the firm to control its expenses, and the firm’s rate of return on investments.
Two fundamental determinants of firm’s profitability and returns on investments are the following:
        Cost Control
*      Is the firm controlling costs and earning reasonable profit margin?
        Efficiency of asset utilization
*      Is the firm efficiently utilizing the assets to generate sales?
Gross profit margin shows how well the firm’s management controls its expenses to generate profits.

*      Example:
                What will be the gross profit margin ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume sales of $2,500 million and gross profit of $650 million for 2009?
                Gross Profit Margin
                = $650 million ÷ $2,500 million = 26%
                The firm spent $0.74 for cost of goods sold for each dollar of sales. Thus, $0.26 out of each dollar of sales goes to gross profits.
*      Operating Profit Margin measures how much profit is generated from each dollar of sales after accounting for both costs of goods sold and operating expenses. It thus also indicates how well the firm is managing its income statement.

*      Example:
                What will be the operating profit margin ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume sales of $2,500 million and  net operating income of $350 million for 2009?
                Operating Profit Margin = $350 million ÷ $2,500 million = 14%
                Thus the firm generates $0.14 in operating profit for each dollar of sales.
*      Net Profit Margin measures how much income is generated from each dollar of sales after adjusting for all expenses (including income taxes).
*      Example:
                What will be the net profit margin ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume sales of $2,500 million and net income of $217.75 million for 2009?
                Net Profit Margin = $217.75 million ÷ $2,500 million = 8.71%
                The firm generated $0.087 for each dollar of sales after all expenses (including income taxes) were accounted for.
*      Operating Return on Assets ratio is the summary measure of operating profitability, which takes into account both the management’s success in controlling expenses, contributing to profit margins, and its efficient use of assets to generate sales.

*      Example:
                What will be the operating return on assets ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume EBIT or net operating income of $350 million for 2009?
                Operating Return on Assets = $350 million ÷$1,764 million = 19.84%
                The firm generated $0.1984 of operating profits for every $1 of its invested assets.
*      Decomposing the OROA ratio:  We can use the following equation to decompose the OROA ratio that allows us to analyze the firm’s ability to control costs and utilize its investments in assets efficiently.




Figure 4-1 Observations
*      Firm’s OROA (operating return on assets) is better than its peers. Thus the firm earned more net operating income per dollar invested in assets.
*      Firm’s OPM  (operating profit margin) is lower than its peers. Thus the firm retained a lower percentage of its sales in net operating income.
*      Firm’s TATO (total asset turnover ratio) is higher than its peers. Thus the firm generated more sales from its assets.
Figure 4-1 Recommendations
*      The firm has two opportunities to improve its profitability:
  1. Reduce costs - The firm must investigate the cost of goods sold and operating expenses to see if there are opportunities to reduce costs.
  2. Reduce inventories – The firm must investigate if it can reduce the size of its inventories.
Is the Firm Providing a Reasonable Return on the Owner’s Investment?
*      A firm’s net income consists of earnings that is available for distribution to the firm’s shareholders. Return on Equity ratio measures the accounting return on the common stockholders’ investment.

*      Example:
                What will be the return on equity ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume net income of $217.75 million for 2009?
                Return on Equity = $217.75 million ÷ $751.50 million = 28.98%
                Thus the shareholders earned 28.97% on their investments.
                Note common equity includes both common stock plus the firm’s retained earnings.
Using the DuPont Method for Decomposing the ROE ratio
*      DuPont method analyzes the firm’s ROE by decomposing it into three parts: profitability, efficiency and an equity multiplier.
      ROE = Profitability × Efficiency × Equity Multiplier
*      Equity multiplier captures the effect of the firm’s use of debt financing on its return on equity. The equity multiplier increases in value as the firm uses more debt.

ROE = Net Profit Margin × Total Asset Turnover Ratio × 1/(1-debt ratio)
*      The following table shows why Boswell’s return on equity was higher than its peers.

 *      The table suggests that Boswell had a higher ROE as it was able to generate more sales from its assets (1.37 versus 1.15 for peers) and used more leverage (2.16 versus 1.54). 
*      Note use of financial leverage may not always generate value for shareholders. 

Market Value Ratios
*      Market value ratios address the question, how are the firm’s shares valued in the stock market?
*      Two market value ratios are:    
        Price-Earnings Ratio
        Market-to-Book Ratio
*      Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio indicates how much investors are currently willing to pay for $1 of reported earnings.
*      What will be the PE ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 if we assume the firm’s stock was selling for $22 per share at a time when the firm reported a net income of $217.75 million, and the total number of common shares outstanding are 90 million?
*      Earnings per share
                = $217.75 million ÷ 90 million = $2.42
*      PE ratio =   $22 ÷ $2.42 = 9.09
*      The investors were willing to pay $9.09 for every dollar of earnings per share that the firm generated.
*      Market-to-Book Ratio measures the relationship between the market value and the accumulated investment in the firm’s equity.

*      What will be the market-to-book ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. for 2009 given that the current market price of the stock is $22 and the firm has 90 million shares outstanding?
Book Value per Share = 751.50 million  ÷ 90 million  = $8.35 per share
Market-to-Book Ratio = Market price per share ÷ Book value per share
                                                         = $22 ÷ $8.35 = 2.63  times
Summing up the Financial Analysis of H. J. Boswell, Inc.
*      Liquidity: With the exception of inventory turnover ratio, liquidity ratios were adequate to good. The next step will be to see how inventory management can be improved.
*      Financial Leverage: The firm uses more debt than its peers, which exposes the firm to a higher degree of financial risk or potential default on its debt in the future.
*      Profitability: H.J. Boswell had favorable net operating income despite lower profit margins, largely due to its higher asset turnover ratio. The return on equity was also higher than the peer group due to use of more debt.
*      Market Value Ratios: These ratios suggest that the market is pleased with the firm as indicated by higher stock valuations.

Selecting a Performance Benchmark
There are two types of benchmarks that are commonly used:
        Trend Analysis – involves comparing a firm’s financial statements over time.
        Peer Group Comparisons – involves comparing the subject firm’s financial statements with those of similar, or “peer” firms. The benchmark for peer groups typically consists of firms from the same industry or industry average financial ratios.
Trend Analysis


 Financial Analysis of the Gap, Inc., June 2009

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